“Above all we need, particularly as children, the reassuring presence of a visible community, and intimate group that enfolds us with understanding and love, and that becomes an object of our spontaneous loyalty, as a criterion and point of reference for the rest of the human race.” – Lewis Mumford
The Columbia Flier article provides a very straightforward discussion of the services currently available for seniors and a few initiatives that will soon provide for the same population segment. In addition, the data and commentary within the article presents the basis for why aging in place is taking place. The article sites a 2010 national survey sponsored by the American Association of Retired People.
According to a survey published by the AARP, nearly 90 percent of American adults over age 65 want to stay in their residence, with more than 80 percent believing their current residence is where they will always live.
Over at the Columbia Association, President Phil Nelson has produced a 23-page document that reflects much thought into the local aging population. Mr. Nelson does not reference the AARP study, but draws from US Census data. Some of the findings listed in the report are as follows:
Where the Columbia Flier article provided the causes of the growing senior population, the CA document focuses on the effects projected out to 2030 and beyond. The first dozen pages detail the projected demographic changes to come. At that point the paper shifts focus and provides recommendations to the Columbia Association Business Model so that CA can adapt to the changing population. | Columbia Compass Guide to |
How things have changed in the last 20 years in Columbia and Howard County! The last new building related the redevelopment of Downtown Columbia is opening. Columbia’s development is now focused on the new mixed use center rising along Snowden River parkway on parts of the old GE site. It will be a mini-downtown for the eastern part of Columbia. Its twin is rising across I-95 on the old quarry site. The new bridge across I-95 linking Route 1 and Snowden River Parkway makes travel between Columbia and Route 1 easier. Of course downtown Columbia is much larger.
Speaking of population, some significant changes have occurred over the last 20 years. Five distinct generations inhabit Columbia (a few in the mature/silent generation, the baby boom generation, generation X, generation Y, generation Z) – each generation is distinct and has different requirements, particularly related to services and communication. There was the increase in the Asian and Hispanic populations (the Caucasian population is now only 35% of the overall population in Columbia), but the biggest change was in age. The senior population has sky-rocketed; now over 20% of the Columbia population. People have either decided to age in place in their homes (which have adopted over the years) or they have moved to downtown Columbia to enjoy all the amenities and night life. Downtown Columbia residents are either seniors or 1 and 2 person young adult households. There are very few children in downtown Columbia; it is just not conducive to children. Almost all families/children live in the other nine villages. Actually, a song from the 1960’s can describe the situation: “Where have all the children gone?” With so many young adults delaying marriage and having only 1 or 2 children or deciding to remain childless, the population of children has shrunk both in size as well as percent of the population. Over 80% of the households are childless. The county school arguments have gone from “should we build more schools” to “should we convert the excess schools into senior condos”.
Not many single family homes have been torn down, but they are very different from the Columbia of 20 years ago. In 2014, there were about 39,000 households in Columbia, and the median household size was about 2.55 persons. That’s the basis the 2010 Census that showed a Columbia population of 99,615. Now, with different lifestyles and housing choices, Columbia median household totals have decreased to about 1.8 persons per household. Just that seemingly small change means that the same number of households now provide shelter to just over 70,000 people. The remainder of the population lives in higher density units constructed in downtown, and the Village Centers.
That being said, there is a lot to talk about here. The first data point that had me pondering Columbia’s future was that more than 80% of Columbia households would not have children. Based on other data contained in the report, this yields a “family households with children” total of approximately 7400 units. That is less than the current number of households in Owen Brown (4069) and Oakland Mills (3416) combined. It is also less than the number of Columbia family households with children in 1980. Just for a moment, think of Columbia in the above referenced context: Columbia, a community of two thriving family villages, surrounded by eight villages of singles and couples of varying age. Was that the plan? Is that a better city?
Of course, this is pure fiction. The reality may be far worse. If these projections are at all valid, the future has 7400 families scattered over 27 square miles. A politically, socially and culturally weak archipelago of households – driving farther, working harder and spending more time just focused on providing their children interactive play with their peers.
Many of the supporting statements in Dateline: August 2033 describe the effects of a potential household-with-children crater. As families with children households drop off, the Village Centers will see fewer dollars. As the Village Centers become unprofitable, the retail tenants will soon depart, leaving little other option for the land. Particularly troubling is the projection that school sites would be considered for conversion to age restricted condos. (quick aside – the reference to the song “Where have all the children gone” from the 1960’s appears to be inaccurate. The song was a rewriting of another song (paragraph 3 under Activism) from the 1960’s. Although the wording is correct (circa 1997), the metaphor behind either form of the song is jarring in this context).
Take a moment and reflect on the projected changes to the Columbia Villages. If a Village loses its Village Center, if its school are converted to condos, if the tot lots are converted to “demographically appropriate opportunities,” if residents have to drive farther for daily needs, if kids need to take longer bus rides to school, what exactly is left of a Columbia Village? In what way is this future Columbia better than Perryville? Crofton? Bowie? Germantown?
Lastly, the discussion that in the future, parts of Columbia will be “…just not conducive to children” sets off alarm bells in my head. As a community that has since its founding put forth a vision of diversity and inclusiveness, the idea that a twenty year development would allow for any group to be excluded is mind boggling. The idea that the group being excluded would be our smallest, our most impressionable, and in the broadest calculus, our most important resource demonstrates a complete lack of value in this community – today, tomorrow, or at any time.
“Somehow, we have to get older people back close to growing children if we are to restore a sense of community, a knowledge of the past, and a sense of the future.” – Margaret Meade
Ultimately, I think that this analysis does a good job of describing where we are, and I believe that some of the claims may become reality. However, I think there is one aspect that was not considered in the analysis, and that aspect is love. I believe that throughout human history, where there are people in love, babies happen. The past few years may have seen a downward trend in births, but I think that in the future, people will fall in love and have kids and those families will need a great community to raise those kids. I believe in a future where seniors are part of the community (as for certain I will be one of those seniors), but they also realize that we need to make room for families with kids to thrive.
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