In order for Columbia to be successful, families are an economic necessity. This town cannot survive as it was intended without them, and they need to be present in greater numbers. The percentage of married couples with kids in 1980 may represent a high water mark that may never be repeated. However, the current number of families with kids is too small at this time. To get an understanding of the effects of married couples with kids on Columbia today, consider the following projection:
On the other hand, increasing the number of married with kids households to 33% of total households (approximately 4000 households) seems somewhat reasonable over a decade. That is roughly 500 households a year. Ambitious, yes but a goal worthy of such a great community. Another point to keep in mind is that the number of senior households is projected to increase by 10% over the same time period, and most reports I have read show local and governmental organizations lining up to accommodate this age group, so why not both seniors and families?
Before we get into any deeper analysis here, it is important to frame the discussion. Beyond the charts and numbers, it is important to know what was going on in Columbia in 1980, and how the community has evolved over the last three decades.
History
The Columbia of 1980 is a place far removed from today. US 29 still had stoplights at MD 103, MD 108, South Entrance Road (southbound), Owen Brown Road, and MD 32. In fact the MD 32 we know today only extended about a mile, from a spur off Guilford Road to I-95. At that time, MD 32 was what we now call Guilford Road. For those brave kids that liked to explore, the overpasses for what is now MD 32 existed in a meadow with no roads connecting them. MD 100 was still on the drawing board.
Then, as now, the Mall in Columbia was under construction. The soon to be opened wing that now houses the food court and Sears anchor was being built. Taco Bueno was holding down the corner between the original mall and the new construction. Even though the mall expansion had taken down far more trees than anyone imagined, a thick buffer of trees separated the Mall from Governor Warfield Parkway and the neighborhoods to the west of downtown. The Howard County Central Library had been built, but it was restricted to staff-only access and not open to the public.
Out in the Villages, development continued according to the plan. By this time most of Wilde Lake, Harpers Choice, Oakland MIlls, and Long Reach were built out. The Village of River HIll was still in the design stage, and the neighborhoods of Kendall Ridge (Long Reach), Dickinson (Kings Contrivance), and Fairway Hills (Dorsey Search) had not been built. Clarys Forest (HIckory Ridge), Hopewell (Owen Brown), Hobbits Glen (Harpers Choice) and Dorsey Hall (Dorsey Search) would see many more housing units constructed in the coming decades. In short, Columbia has always been known as a planned community, and the master plan was well under way.
Follow the Plan
Over the last thirty years, the Columbia Plan was a powerful driver. The master plan, both the physical layout and economic model, was intended to be so comprehensive that it would take into account changing variables over time. The Columbia plan performance during the 1970’s reinforced this thinking. Having gone through two energy crises and recession, Columbia was still doing well against the bottom line. These shocks were not planned for, and many similar planned communities - with Federal government backing -went bankrupt during the same time period. Given this short history, it is hard to fault anyone who thought at the time that the Columbia Plan was durable and robust.
With this setting, construction continued at pace over the last thirty years. In addition to the residential construction, Howard Research and Development constructed the Hickory Ridge, Dorsey Hall, Kings Contrivance and River Hill Village Centers. These four joined the five (Wilde Lake, Oakland Mills, Harpers Choice, Long Reach, and Owen Brown) Village Centers in the city, and this was in accordance with the plan. (Note: the Owen Brown Village Center was built by Giant Food, Inc.)
Apparently what was not considered during this time was while all this construction was going on, the number of married with kids households remained constant. This diluted the grocery shopping dollar across the city. We now have the same number of families shopping at twice the number of supermarkets (and yes, at grocery stores at Columbia’s perimeter, and Costco, and Wegmans). The effect has reduced individual store profits across the city. Keep in mind that this was not readily apparent. As the population of Columbia grew, there were more shoppers in the stores, but if the patrons were shopping for two, they bought less than parents shopping to feed themselves and kids.
To attempt to quantify difference in purchase power, refer again to the bar chart above. As stated earlier, I believe a goal of adding 4000 families to Columbia would help stabilize the city. If those new family households displaced singles and couples, the established supermarkets would see an increase in revenue. Consider the following data from the Food Marketing Institute (note year 2011, latest year available):
2011 Grocery Store Expenditures
Families with Kids $120.70 /week
Families w/o Kids $90.00 /week
Weekly_Spending_Delta = $120.70 - $90.00 = $30.70
Annual_Spending_Delta = $30.70 (per week) X 52 (weeks/year) = $1,596.40
Household_Spending_Delta = $1,596.40 X 4000 (families) = $6,385,600 each year.
Another source to consider is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey database. Through a compilation of diaries and surveys, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau publish on a regular basis the spending habits of Americans. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics website:
The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) program consists of two surveys, the Quarterly Interview Survey and the Diary Survey, that provide information on the buying habits of American consumers, including data on their expenditures, income, and consumer unit (families and single consumers) characteristics. The survey data are collected for the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The CE is important because it is the only Federal survey to provide information on the complete range of consumers' expenditures and incomes, as well as the characteristics of those consumers. It is used by economic policymakers examining the impact of policy changes on economic groups, by businesses and academic researchers studying consumers' spending habits and trends, by other Federal agencies, and, perhaps most importantly, to regularly revise the Consumer Price Index market basket of goods and services and their relative importance.
Now, I’m not neither an economist nor a marketing professional. Given the above data, I do not expect that every single dollar would be produced and directly spent on groceries. What is important to consider here is that the above data suggests that families moving into Columbia would have a positive effect on supermarket revenues, and by extension the health of the Village Centers. Secondly, I believe it is safe to state that the magnitude of families moving in can be measured in millions of dollars.
Going a Little Deeper
As an industry, retail supermarkets operate on very slim profit margins, typically on the order of 1%-3%. If the future Columbia household profile changes and the additional monies spent in grocery stores are directed only toward low profit and loss-lead items, the impact would be minimal. The largest supermarket chains have done continuous and exhaustive studies on the purchasing habits of various household types; however, this type of analysis is considered proprietary and very few have been released to the public. If you have time, I suggest taking a look at one study done by the Progressive Grocer. It provides an exhaustive comparison of purchasing categories by household size.
What is known about supermarkets is where a lot of their profit is generated. Many of the high-profit items are easy to find, they are typically at the store perimeter. Fresh produce, the deli counter, bakery counter and fresh fish counter is where a lot of store profit is generated. Markups on these items are typically high. Within the aisles, cereal and private brand (store brand) goods also carry high markups. At first blush, this aligns pretty well with family with kids purchasing habits. Fresh fruit and cereal is a breakfast staple in most American families. Brown bag lunches for parents and kids require regular visits to the deli counter, and purchasing in higher quantities. With more people in the house, more birthday cakes are purchased, in addition to purchasing muffins and other baked goods to support organized youth sports, PTA teacher appreciation meals, and other events. The Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Expenditure data shown in the charts below demonstrates the annual purchasing differences between families with kids, married couples, and singles.
If we value the Village Center, not only as a place for convenient shopping, but as a vital concept that is integral to the Columbia Vision, we need to change. If this change does not become part of our culture, Village Centers will continue to see instability and possibly go under. When that happens, Columbia will move farther away from the vision laid out almost fifty years ago and Columbia will become more like many other mid-atlantic suburbs. Not a bad place to live, mind you; but not Columbia.
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